Descriptive and Geographical Analysis of Flood Disaster Evacuation Modelling

The planning of evacuation operations for a riverine flood disaster is vital for minimizing their negative impacts on human lives. This paper aims to develop a systematic method to model and plan evacuation trip generation and distribution for riverine floods. To achieve this aim, it adapts the transportation or Hitchcock problem, an operations research technique employed in conventional four-stage transportation modeling, and that is used to plan and model transport in normal situations, so that it is appropriate for flood disaster situations focusing on the first two stages. Concentrating on pre-flood hazard planning, our evacuation modelling considers two types of flood disaster data environments: certain environs, in which all decision variables are known, and uncertain environs, when probabilities of decision variables are considered in the evacuation plans.